Trump’s Tariff Deadline News With Stocks at a Record high
U.S. equity markets closed the holiday-shortened week at all-time highs, boosted by a better-than-expected June jobs report that helped ease concerns of a broader economic slowdown despite the tariff deadline looming.
The S&P 500 rose 1.7% to close at a record 6,279.35. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.6% to a new high of 20,601. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2.3%, finishing just 300 points shy of a record close. All three indices reflected investor optimism fueled by solid labor market data and diminished expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut.
June Jobs Surprise Reverses Rate Cut Bets
The June nonfarm payroll report showed the U.S. added 147,000 jobs, outpacing economists’ forecasts of 106,000. The unemployment rate also dropped unexpectedly to 4.1%, bucking projections of a rise to 4.3%. In response, market expectations for a July interest rate cut sharply declined. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders priced in only a 5% chance of a July rate cut by the end of the week — a steep drop from 24% the day before.
RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas stated the labor data effectively removed the likelihood of any near-term rate cut, reinforcing projections of a “slowing but solid economy.”
Markets Brace for Tariff Deadline as Trump Signals Tougher Trade Posture
Looking ahead, attention shifts to trade policy. With a light schedule of economic data, markets will focus on the July 9 expiration of President Trump’s self-imposed 90-day delay on new tariffs. The pause, initially set for April 2, was intended to provide time for trade negotiations. Trump warned Sunday via Truth Social that any nation aligning with BRICS “anti-American” policies will face an additional 10% export tariff. No exceptions were mentioned.
While deals like the recent agreement with Vietnam offer some clarity, trade relations with the EU and Canada remain unresolved. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that roughly 100 partners may face a base 10% tariff if no agreements are reached by the deadline, but also hinted at a potential last-minute surge in negotiations.
Fed Minutes and Corporate Earnings in Focus Next Week
Despite the uncertainty, analysts suggest markets have already priced in a moderate outcome. Capital Economics’ Jennifer McKeown noted that most investors assume the administration will avoid repeating the volatility seen in early April by extending negotiations further.
Investors will closely track the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from the June meeting on Wednesday and Delta Air Lines’ quarterly results on Thursday for further market signals.
